How a Nest of Ants Nearly Scuppered this Post

Now, the focus of this write up was originally centered around the nuances of demand change as a result of special activities one of which is when schedules are loaded. However, as I was writing this up I experienced one of those external factors which can throw things slightly for a loop. With any luck it adds a little bit of a hook to encourage you to read the rest of this article for which I nearly missed a couple of critical deadlines thanks to Mother Nature.

Typically, when it comes to forecasting we are looking at the normal. Yes, there is a certain amount of learning as we progress through our demand periods but essentially relative consistency is important. However, we do know that there are special activities which will always impact that forecast. For example, the one cited above regarding loading of schedules may have quite a significant impact where in one year a booking cycle may be spread out over 450 days, yet delays in posting a schedule may mean that similar booking activity may only be spread out over 380 days for the coming season.