Private Credit in 2026: Why Underwriting Discipline Sets Winners Apart

This SG Analytics blog explores how the private credit market is evolving as it enters 2026, shifting from defensive deployment toward opportunity-driven deal execution where underwriting discipline becomes the key differentiator. As refinancing pressures ease and selective deal activity increases, lenders are positioned to negotiate stronger pricing, tighter documentation, and improved risk-adjusted returns. Drawing on market data, the article discusses projected private credit issuance, changing supply-demand dynamics, the importance of structural controls and portfolio oversight, and why consistent underwriting rigor will determine performance outcomes amid varied market conditions. The post also highlights broader trends such as moderating pricing power, portfolio company performance stability, and the complexities raising analytical and monitoring demands for private credit managers.